Om världens befolkning

Bilden nedan visar befolkningstätheten både i de rika och de fattiga länderna 2015.

*https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/9tvsa0/population_density_of_the_world/*

Världens befolkning uppgår nu 2022, till 8 miljarder människor och väntas år 2050 uppgå till mer än 9.7 miljarder. Vid kommande sekelskifte kommer, enligt FN:s befolkningsprognos från år 2019, Jordens befolkning uppgå till 11 miljarder! Tyvärr, är det en optimistisk prognos, därför att den kräver att fertiliteten generellt minskar till ca 2 barn per kvinna.

Efter 200 000 år av människans historia översteg världens befolkning för första gången en miljard i början av 1800-talet och passerade 2.5 miljarder år 1950. Vi har på drygt 100 år gått från 1,5 miljarder människor år 1900 till idag ca 7,9 miljarder!

Jordens befolkning växer fortfarande med ca 223 000 per dag: per dag föds ca 383 000 och dör ca 155 000. Den snabba ökningen fortsätter med hela 83 miljoner människor per år, vilket är fler än någonsin! Allt fler länder har, eller går mot, ohållbar överbefolkning med näst intill olösliga följdproblem av många slag.

Det stora antalet människor är en av de viktigaste, men ofta förbisedda, orsakerna till de allvarliga problem många länder kämpar med idag, inte minst klimat- och miljöhoten. Jordens befolkningsnivå måste vara hållbar.

Ohållbart stor befolkning och en snabb befolkningstillväxt bidrar till fattigdom, nationella och internationella konflikter, stora flyktingströmmar, resursutarmning, utrotning av arter och sämre livskvalitet för alla. Med dagens fortsatta folkökning i Afrika, men också i vissa rikare länder med relativt hög genomsnittskonsumtion per capita, blir det snabbt mycket svårare att lösa problemen. Många länder har redan nu akuta problem och ber om hjälp i stor skala.

Många av mänsklighetens största utmaningar, som t.ex. klimathotet, är mycket starkt kopplade till jordens folkmängd. Därför har frågan om den globala folkökningen fått förnyad aktualitet.

Ovanstående diagram visar världsbefolkningen från 10 000 före vår tidsräkning till idag. Diagrammet (https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth) visar det ökande antalet människor som bor på vår planet under de senaste 12 000 åren. (OBS engelska billion i grafen är miljard på svenska). För 12 årtusenden sedan var världsbefolkningen cirka 4 miljoner – hälften av den nuvarande befolkningen i en stad som London.

Befolkningen i genomsnitt växte mycket långsamt under denna långa tid från 10 000 före vår tidsräkning till för bara ca 300 är sedan, 1700 (med 0,04% årligen). Nästan all tillväxt skedde precis nyligen. Efter 1800 förändrades detta grundläggande: världsbefolkningen var cirka 1 miljard år 1800 och ökade sju gånger sedan dess.

Redan 1968 fastslog rätten till familjeplanering

I ett möte i Theheran med FNs kommission för de mänskliga rättigheterna fastslogs rätten till familjeplanering redan 1968. Den rätten kodifierades i följande utmärkta paragraf i Världsaktionsplanen (1974) som fortfarande är grundbulten i planetens befolkningspolitik, där en sådan fortfarande må existera.

”It is recommended that all countries: ”Respect and ensure, regardless of their over-all demographic goals, the right of persons to determine, in a free, informed and responsible manner, the number and spacing of their children” (para 29 a)

Concensus 1984 att begränsa jordens befolkning

Nedan återges några rader från konferensen i Mexico 1984. Som bestämdes redan 1968 är familj planering en mänsklig rättighet. Då kan man åstadkomma en direkt inverkan på resurser och hälsa och bidra till en hållbar tillväxt. Dessutom, om man ansvarsfullt kan planera sitt eget barnantal bidrar man till inter-generationell rättvisa. Då, 1984, var prognosen att jordens befolkning år 2000 skulle uppgå till 6.1 miljard, vilket tyvärr stämmer med det som det har blivit; vilket kan räknas som ett misslyckande. Läs alla punkter från deklarationen https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/generalassembly/docs/globalcompact/E_CONF.76_19_Declaration.pdf

MEXICO CITY DECLARATION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT 1984

1- The International Conference on Population met in Mexico City from 6 to 14 August 1984, to appraise the Implementation of the World Population Plan of Action, adopted by consensus at Bucharest, 10 years age. The Conference reaffirmed the full validity of the principles and objectives of the World Population Plan of Action and adopted a set of recommendations for the further Implementation of the Plan in the years ahead.

4-. Population growth, high mortality and morbidity, and migration problems continue to be causes of great concern requiring immediate action.

6-. Since Bucharest the global population growth rate has declined from 2.03 to 1.67 per cent per year. In the next decade the growth rate will decline more slowly. Moreover, the annual increase in numbers is expected to continue and may reach 90 million by the year 2000. Ninety per cent of that increase will occur in developing countries and at that time 6.1 billion people are expected to inhabit the Earth.

12-. Unwanted high fertility adversely affects the health and welfare of individuals and families, especially among the poor, and seriously impedes social and economic progress in many countries. Women and children are the main victims of unregulated fertility. Too many, too close, too early and too late pregnancies are a major cause of maternal, infant and childhood mortality and morbidity.

13-. Although considerable progress has been made since Bucharest, millions of people still lack access to safe and effective family planning methods. By the year 2000 some 1.6 billion women will be of childbearing age, 1.3 billion of them in developing countries. Major efforts must be made now to ensure that all couples and individuals can exercise their basic human right to decide freely, responsibly and without coercion, the number and spacing of their children and to have the information, education and means to do so. In exercising this right, the best interests of their living and future children as well as the responsibility towards 1 the community should be taken into account.

14-. Although modern contraceptive technology has brought considerable progress into family planning programmes, increased funding is required in order develop new methods and to improve the safety, efficacy and acceptability of existing methods. Expanded research should also be undertaken in human reproduction to solve problems of infertility and subfecundity.

22-. At Bucharest, the world was made aware of the gravity and magnitude of the population problems and their close interrelationship with economic and social development. The message of Mexico City is to forge ahead with effective implementation of the World Population Plan of Action aimed at improving standards of living and quality of life for all peoples of this planet in promotion of their common destiny in peace and security.

23-. IN ISSUING THIS DECLARATION, ALL PARTICIPANTS AT THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON POPULATION REITERATE THEIR COMMITMENT AND REDEDICATE THEMSELVES TO THE FURTHER IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PLAN.

Hållbar utveckling, som den formulerades 1987

I kommissionens rapport 1987 ”Our Common Future”, präglades uttrycket ”Sustainable Development”. Kommisionen ordförande var Gro Harlem Brundland och var vidare sammansatt av framstående personer från alla då relevanta delar av världen, öst/väst/nord/syd. I kapitlen om Befolkning, kap 4 ”Excessive population growth” framhålls befolkning, sida upp och sida ned, som ett allvarligt hot mot sustainable development. Nedan återges introduktionen till kapitlen 4 från rapporten, som är väl värd att läsa och begrunda i sin helhet https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/5987our-common-future.pdf

Chapter 4: Population and Human Resources

In 1985 some 80 million people were added to a world population of 4.8 billion. Each year the number of human beings increases, but the amount of natural resources with which to sustain this population, to improve the quality of human lives and to eliminate mass poverty remains finite. On the other hand, expanding knowledge increases the productivity of resources.
Present rates of population growth cannot continue. They already compromise many governments’ abilities to provide education, health care, and food security for people, much less their abilities to raise living standards. This gap between numbers and resources is all the more compelling because so much of the population growth is concentrated in low-income countries, ecologically disadvantaged regions, and poor households.
Yet the population issue is not solely about numbers. And poverty and resource degradation can exist on thinly populated lands, such as the drylands and the tropical forests. People are the ultimate resource. Improvements in education, health, and nutrition allow them to better use the resources they command, to stretch them further. In addition, threats to the sustainable use of resources come as much from inequalities in people’s access to resources and from the ways in which they use them as from the sheer numbers of people. Thus concern over the ‘population problem’ also calls forth concern for human progress and human equality.
Nor are population growth rates the challenge solely of those nations with high rates of increase. An additional person in an industrial country consumer far more and places far greater pressure on natural resources than an additional person in the Third World. Consumption patterns and preferences are as important as numbers of consumers in the conservation of resources.
Thus many governments must work on several fronts to limit population growth; to control the impact of such growth on resources and, with increasing knowledge, enlarge their range and improve their productivity; to realize human potential so that people can better husband and use resources; and to provide people with forms of social security other than large numbers of children. The means of accomplishing these goals will vary from country to country, but all should keep in mind that sustainable economic growth and equitable access to resources are two of the more certain routes towards lower fertility rates.
Giving people the means to choose the size of their families is not just a method of keeping population in balance with resources; it is a way of assuring – especially for women the basic human right of self-determination. The extent to which facilities for exercising such choices are made available is itself a measure of a nation’s development. In the same way enhancing human potential not only promotes development but helps to ensure the right of all to a full and dignified life.